Pound Sterling – UK Markets

Sterling currency rates touched on a 10-week low against the single currency yesterday, falling to 1.1410 in the midst of weak market sentiment. This morning the pound continues to fall, trading at 1.13 against the euro and 1.63 against the US dollar.

Sterling sentiment remains extremely weak at present, due to the absence of positive UK data and growing levels of government debt. The rise in German business confidence has led to increased pressure on the pound, though economists are speculating this could be positive for sterling as a euro recovery, combined with weak exchange rates will help stimulate UK exports. The next two days are light for UK data with GDP figures released on Friday.

US Dollar – US Markets

The US dollar rose for the fifth consecutive day against the pound, as markets responded favourably to the news that Ben Bernanke would be appointed a second term as Fed chairman. This morning US currency rates are valued at 0.69 versus euro and 0.61 against the pound, while declining against the yen, Australian and New Zealand dollars.

US consumer confidence figures released yesterday show confidence rose for the first time in three months, reaching 54.1 and topping the 50 mark which separates negative from positive data. House prices however, continued to decline, falling 6.1% in the second quarter despite a 0.5% rise in the month to July. Today new home sales figures and durable goods orders will be of interest to US markets.

Euro – European Markets

Euro currency rates have continued to rally this morning, gaining a further 0.3% on the pound and 0.15% on the US dollar. The single currency has also gained against its Asian and European currency partners, touching on 0.84 against the pound and 1.43 against the US dollar.

The German IFO business climate survey has risen to 90.5 in August, while expectations have also risen to 95. The German import price index came in at -0.9% on the month but overall, the euro is stronger due to dramatically improved sentiment in the eurozone. There is no further data in the eurozone today, with economic, consumer and industrial confidence released later in the week.

Other Currencies – Highlights

In Japan export levels have declined in July, falling for the tenth straight month sparking fears that the effects of global stimulus packages may be beginning to wane. Export levels fell 37.5% in July, more than the 36.5% recorded in June. Currency rates for the yen have climbed against the pound, euro and US dollar this morning.

Annual inflation rates in Brazil have slowed for the third consecutive month, prompting speculation that the central bank will keep interest rates low until mid 2010. Currency rates for the Brazilian real fell 1% against the US dollar following the news, and are currently trading at 1.86 per US dollar.

Pound Sterling – UK Markets

The pound shed 0.57 pence against the euro yesterday as exchange rates dipped due to investor fears over the state of the UK budget deficit. This morning the pound has continued to decline, falling to 1.63 against the US dollar and 1.15 against the euro.

With government debt currently running at 56% of GDP, there are growing concerns over how the government plans to tackle the massive debt that could prove inflationary. Charles Bean noted that the weak pound is stimulating the economy through improved export prices and this is aiding UK recovery. This morning’s MPC minutes show the committee unanimously voted to leave QE levels unchanged, as they felt the slowing pace of decline meant no further stimulus was necessary in July. The MPC will meet again in August.

US Dollar – US Markets

US dollar exchange rates have strengthened following Bernanke’s speech to Congress yesterday in which he outlined US economic prospects. This morning the dollar has gained against all its major currency partners with the exception of the yen, climbing to 0.70 versus the euro and 0.61 against a weaker pound.

Ben Bernanke gave a cautious assessment of the US economy to Congress yesterday, stating that while there are “tentative signs of recovery” the situation is highly unstable and Fed policy will be focussed on “fostering economic recovery”. He also noted that unemployment will likely remain high into 2011 with a slow and gradual climb out of recession. With no tightening of monetary policy due in the immediate future, risk appetite took a hit, sending the yen and greenback exchange rates higher. The house price index is due today in the US.

Euro – European Markets

Euro exchange rates are mixed this morning, climbing against the higher yielding pound, Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars while losing ground to the yen, US dollar and Brazilian real.

Industrial new orders across the eurozone have fallen -0.2% this month, taking the annual rate of decline to -30.1%. This is in line with falling industrial production across the region as recession contracts almost all sectors of the economy. European equities gained 0.8% yesterday and the euro remains firm in the region of 1.42 against the US dollar. There is no further data in the eurozone today with current account figures due tomorrow.

Other Currencies – Highlights

Australian dollar exchange rates reached a one-month high against the pound overnight, as consumer inflation figures slowed to 0.5%, the lowest level in a year. In combination with negative news in the UK, this allowed the Australian dollar to consolidate on the pound. The news also suggests that the Reserve Bank will leave interest rates on hold for some time.

Japanese yen exchange rates have surged overnight, amid concerns over the pace of global economic recovery. The Japanese yen gained the most against the euro, South African rand and British pound as low risk appetite in the market led investors to seek out the safe havens.

Pound Sterling – UK Markets

Sterling exchange rates are in familiar territory against its international currency partners this morning, trading at 1.63 against the dollar and 1.16 against the euro. The pound has also gained over 0.3% against the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars on the back of improved risk appetite.

The rising UK unemployment rate put sterling under pressure yesterday as official figures showed unemployment had reached the highest level in 12 years. However the pound was able to trim losses with strong US corporate earning figures and GDP in China boosting appetite for risk in the market. There is no major data in the UK today, with sterling exchange rates likely to be affected by the results of the Philadelphia Fed released this afternoon.

US Dollar – US Markets

Exchange rates for the US dollar slid yesterday as strong corporate earning figures buoyed market sentiment and increased risk appetite. The dollar lost ground against the yen, pound and euro, although has pared losses this morning to currently trade at 0.71 versus the euro and 0.61 against the pound.

Minutes from the FOMC meeting released yesterday noted that any further funds from the Federal Reserve would depend on “the Committee’s evolving expectations for the economy”. The Fed have increased their economic outlook, revising growth figures upwards, but the rising balance sheet is an immediate concern. Strong corporate earnings from Intel and Goldman Sachs triggered a dollar sell off yesterday and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey is due in the US today.

Euro – European Markets

The euro exchange rate climbed 1% against the US dollar yesterday, touching on 1.41 on the back of rising market confidence. The euro has since dropped back against the dollar, currently trading at 0.85 versus the pound and 1.40 versus the dollar.

European indices surged ahead yesterday, with French, German and UK stock markets all gaining over 2% following positive figures in the US and China. Consumer prices have declined in France for the second month in a row, falling 0.6% from a year ago due to lower energy prices. There is no data due in the eurozone today with construction output and the trade balance released tomorrow.

Other Currencies – Highlights

Overnight figures from China show annual GDP growth of 7.9% and industrial production growing 10.7% in the past year, supporting this GDP growth. Inflation rates are falling in China, declining 1.7% on the year, with annual retail sales down to 15% growth, falling from a peak of 23% last year. Overall the Chinese economy remains strong and this led to a wave of optimism in global markets yesterday, sending exchange rates higher for the higher yielding currencies.

Consumer inflation in New Zealand rose by 0.6% in quarter 2, slightly higher than the 0.4% forecast by the Reserve Bank. The New Zealand dollar gained over 2 cents against the pound yesterday on the back of strong profits from Intel and Goldman Sachs and has continued to gain this morning, currently trading at 2.55 to the pound.

Pound Sterling – UK Markets

Sterling foreign exchange rates are mixed this morning, climbing against the US, Canadian dollar and Brazilian real while declining against its European currency partners. The pound is currently valued at 1.63 against the US dollar and 1.16 against the euro.

UK unemployment has climbed to 2.38 million after the biggest quarterly increase on record. ONS statistics show unemployment rose by 281,000 in the three months until May, taking the official rate to 7.6% which is the highest in 10 years. Unemployment in both the US and eurozone is running at 9.5%. Inflation figures yesterday saw the pound strengthen as they added to the view that the Bank of England has room to leave interest rates on hold. There is no further data in the UK today.

US Dollar – US Markets

The US dollar has dropped sharply against the euro this morning, falling 0.6% to 0.71 after the publication of euro inflation figures. The greenback has also weakened against its international currency partners as investors diversify following the equity rally yesterday.

Today US markets are packed with data that will provide a current picture of the US economy and likely affect international foreign exchange rates. US consumer price inflation is due, along with industrial production figures which are expected to decline by -0.9%. This is given the lower number of auto assemblies following the massive downturn in GM and the Chrysler bankruptcy. The FOMC minutes are also due today and this will provide an insight into the Fed’s view of the economy at present.

Euro – European Markets

Euro foreign exchange rates have climbed this morning, breaking through the 1.40 level against the US dollar and rising to 0.85 against the pound. The euro is also stronger against its European currency partners as investors seek an alternative reserve with important US figures due this afternoon.

Consumer prices in the eurozone have fallen for the first time in June, dropping 0.1% from the previous month due to a decline in energy prices and reduced household spending. Despite the falling inflation Eurostat figures show none of the Eastern European nations set to join the eurozone have inflation rates low enough to do so. The maximum current rate for joining the eurozone is 2.6% at present. There is no further data in the eurozone today.

Other Currencies – Highlights

The Bank of Japan has left interest rates unchanged at 0.1% but voted to extend emergency credit programmes until the end of the year to help businesses ride out the recession. Governor Shirakawa said the financial conditions are improving in Japan although confidence remains low and the economy is due to shrink 3.4% this year. The yen has weakened overnight as global confidence improves.

China’s GDP statistics for quarter 2 are out this afternoon. As a key market for commodities and exports, continuing Chinese growth is integral to global economic recovery. Foreign direct investment in China has fallen for the ninth month straight as companies trim budgets to weather the recession.

Pound Sterling – UK markets

The sterling currency rate weakened against the euro on Friday, closing the day at 1.14. In early trading this morning, the pound has risen to 1.15 against the euro and 1.64 against the US dollar. This is the highest level in 2009 for sterling, fuelled by the improvement in global confidence.

Sterling currency rates have climbed across the board this morning, with the pound reaching some of the best currency rates in 2009 against its major currency partners. This positive sentiment is based on the view that decline in the UK economy may be nearing a bottom. The UK PMI for manufacturing released this morning shows an improvement to 45.4, climbing from 43.1 towards 50 which indicates a positive result. The Bank of England’s MPC will meet later this week for an interest rate decision. With rates currently at a record low of 0.5%, no change is expected and any further activity is expected to be based on quantitative easing.

US Dollar – US Markets

The dollar has declined against most of its international currency partners this morning, trading over 1.3% lower against the pound and 0.6% lower against the euro. US currency rates have also sunk over 1.4% against the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

Currency trends for the US dollar are bearish at present and are expected to remain so over the coming month. Weakness in the auto sector is weighing on dollar sentiment and levels of QE in the US are keeping investors uncertain. General Motors, once a symbol of American consumerism and the world’s biggest company, is to declare bankruptcy later in the day. GM is one of the most high profile casualties of the credit crunch and is expected to undergo a short “surgical” bankruptcy with a new “leaner” company to be launched in 60 days. Personal income and consumption figures are due in the US today and these often provide a degree of market volatility as they are closely related to retail sales and consumer confidence.

Euro – European Markets

The euro has also benefitted from a rise in risk appetite internationally, gaining over 0.5% on the dollar to trade at some of the best currency rates this year. The euro is currently valued at 1.42 against the greenback, 0.86 against the pound and 134 against the yen.

After touching on the best currency rates in 2009 against the US dollar on Friday, the euro has continued to gain this morning on the back of improved risk appetite. This is despite the bankruptcy of General Motors which is expected to cost up to 20,000 European jobs. The PMI for manufacturing in both Germany and the eurozone have continued to climb this month, showing a modest improvement in the European manufacturing sector. The EMU unemployment rate is released tomorrow.

Other Currencies – Highlights

The Australian dollar has surged against the pound and US dollar overnight as improved risk appetite and commodity prices support currency rates for the higher yielding currencies. Numbers of new building permits and the RBA interest rate decision for June are due overnight and this could induce some currency volatility for the Aussie dollar.

The Canadian dollar has also gained overnight on the back of more positive market sentiment, climbing nearly one percent on the US currency. Figures released in China overnight indicated a modest expansion in manufacturing activity and this has boosted market sentiment in North America. Canadian GDP figures and industrial product prices are due this afternoon.

Pound Sterling – UK markets

The sterling-euro exchange rate weakened slightly this morning although the pound is still trading at the top of recent ranges at 1.14 against the euro. The sterling-dollar exchange rate is currently in the region of 1.59 and the pound has gained over 1% to trade at 154 against the yen.

Concern is mounting this morning for British car maker Vauxhall after the breakdown of European GM talks last night. While the German government is set to play a large role in the negotiations, the UK government is facing criticism for its failure to protect British jobs and workers. In another corporate merger, Spanish banking giant Santander is set to take control of high street banks Bradford & Bingley, Abbey and Alliance & Leicester. The CBI distributive trends survey is published today and this is expected to provide further evidence that economic decline is easing in the UK.

US Dollar – US Markets

The US dollar has recovered against the pound and euro overnight with exchange rates climbing to 0.62 and 0.72 respectively. The dollar has also gained over 1.5% on the Japanese yen and has dipped against the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars.

The dollar strengthened yesterday on the back of safe haven buying as investors worried that rising yields on US debt could hinder US economic recovery. The trillion dollar budget deficit could affect levels of quantitative easing in the US and this is putting the dollar under pressure. Figures released yesterday brought further evidence the property market is stabilizing with a rise in pre-owned home prices. Orders for durable goods and new home sales are released today and both are expected to have moderated in recent months.

Euro – European Markets

Euro exchange rates have had a bullish run on the US dollar and pound this morning, rising 0.2% and 0.45% respectively. After reaching a high of 1.40 on May 22, the euro exchange rate has dropped back to 1.38 against the dollar this morning and has risen 1.75% against the yen to 134.

All night negotiations in Berlin failed to secure a future for the European division of General Motors last night, with Italian car maker Fiat and Canadian auto manufacturer Magna the two buyers left in the running. The German government is playing a central role in negotiations and is expected to provide billions of euros worth of finance for the takeover. Unemployment in Germany has risen to 8.2% in May, up 0.1% from last month. The German government expects the economy to shrink 6% this year. Euro area economic confidence figures are released today and the eurozone unemployment rate is due tomorrow.

Other Currencies – Highlights

The New Zealand dollar has strengthened this morning following the announcement of the annual budget. Finance minister Bill English deferred tax cuts as a means of servicing New Zealand’s growing budget deficit and this prompted a positive reaction from the Standard & Poor’s which raised New Zealand’s credit rating. The NZD rose to USD0.61 and has climbed 23% against the dollar in the last three months. Sovereign debt is expected to peak at 43% of GDP in 2017.

The Japanese yen has fallen the most in eight weeks against the US dollar and has also slid against the euro amid signs the recession is easing. Domestically the Japanese economy remains weak as rising unemployment and low domestic demand force down retail sales figures. Retail sales slid by 2.9% in April, falling for the eighth consecutive month. There is a host of economic data out in Japan today including the jobless rate, household spending and industrial production figures for April.

Pound Sterling – UK Markets

This morning the pound is trading at its highest level in 2009 against the US dollar, having risen above 1.55. Sterling exchange rates have also improved against the euro and yen and the pound is currently trading at 1.13 and 148 respectively.

Optimism surrounding recovery in the banking sector and the global economy has fuelled the boost in sterling this week. ONS figures released yesterday showed inflation is falling at the fastest rate on record, with prices declining by 0.4% in April. This takes the annual rate of inflation to -1.2% as interest rate reductions from the Bank of England and lower energy prices have reduced the cost of living. Minutes from the last Bank of England meeting showed all nine members of the MPC voted to leave base rates on hold at 0.5%. The MPC also voted to expand the quantitative easing programme by GBP50 billion rather than a full GBP75 billion. Inflation data had little impact on sterling yesterday and we could see more movement with the release of UK retail sales figures tomorrow.

US Dollar – US Markets

Results are mixed for the US dollar this morning against its international currency partners. The dollar has declined against the pound and euro on the back of improved market confidence, but gained ground on the yen which is under pressure after the release of negative GDP figures yesterday.

US banking giant, Bank of America raised USD13.5 billion in a share sale yesterday, made necessary after stress tests on US banks revealed the bank was in dire need of a cash injection. Last week Bank of America also sold an estimated 13.6 billion shares in China Construction Corp. after encouragement from Treasury secretary Geithner that banks should seek to raise funds independently. Global equities are in consolidation mode this morning although the underlying trend remains positive. Brent crude has settled in the region of USD58-60 a barrel. Minutes from the FOMC meeting are expected to be the major market influence in the US today with the results of the Philadelphia Fed survey due tomorrow.

Euro – European Markets

The euro has strengthened to trade above 1.36 against the US dollar on the back of improved appetite for risk internationally. The euro has weakened against the pound, Canadian and Australian dollars as positive market sentiment is fuelling gains in some of the higher yielding currencies.

Germany’s producer price index released this morning shows a -1.4% decline in prices in April, taking the annual rate of decline to -2.7%. The ZEW index released in Germany yesterday soared from 18.1 points in April to 31.1 in May, showing that investors expect economic conditions in Germany to improve drastically in the coming months. This has boosted euro sentiment as Germany represents the biggest economy in the region. The euro is currently trading in the region of 0.88 against the pound although economists are predicting the euro could drop to a three-month low if support drops below the “resistance level” of 0.87. Switzerland’s ZEW survey is due today with the EMU purchasing manager index for manufacturing and services due tomorrow.

Other Currencies – Highlights

The Japanese yen has weakened overnight after Japan announced a record GDP contraction in the first quarter of 2009. The economy shrunk by 4% from January to March, taking the annual rate of contraction to 15.2%. Japan’s strong industrial base and large export sector have been particularly hard hit by the global recession which has reduced consumer demand for the automobiles and electronic goods Japan is famous for. The yen has also strengthened significantly over the last year making Japanese exports more expensive. However, recent figures have shown the decline in exports slowing down and the Japanese economy may be approaching a bottom. Economists are predicting the yen may weaken as improved confidence leads investors to distribute their funds more widely.

Canadian stock markets and the Canadian dollar have climbed throughout the week, benefitting from global recovery prospects and improved economic sentiment. While recession in Canada has been deep, economists are predicting it may also be short as recent data has shown an improvement in credit conditions, home sales, employment and commodity prices. Canada’s banks have also avoided government bail outs and there is a view among economists that the economy may return to growth next quarter. With the consumer price index and leading indicators due today, we could see a further strengthening of the Canadian dollar.

Pound Sterling – UK Markets

The pound is trading above 1.54 against the dollar this morning, its highest level in 2009 against the greenback. The pound has also climbed above 1.13 on the euro and is up nearly 1% on the yen as improved risk appetite has stimulated demand for the UK currency.

Sterling exchange rates have improved on the back of global recovery prospects, more positive economic data over the last few months has seen investors begin to diversify their foreign currency reserves leading to improved exchange rates for the pound and euro in particular. Throughout the second half of the year as evidence of recovery begins to emerge, we could see more scope for sterling strength against the yen and US dollar. This morning the UK consumer price index has risen by 0.2% for April, climbing 2.3% on the year while the retail price index has also climbed in April, by 0.1%. Profits at retail giant have declined by GBP400 million and the company has slashed its shareholder dividend by one third. UK retail sales figures are due later in the week with the Bank of England minutes out tomorrow.

US Dollar – US Markets

The dollar has weakened against the pound and euro overnight and is trading at lower levels against a basket of international currency partners this morning as improved economic data supports the view that the global economy is stabilizing.

A speech from Treasury secretary Geithner in which he commented that the US economy had stabilised prompted a rally in equity markets yesterday. This boosted currency exchange rates for the higher yielding currencies at the expense of the safe haven dollar and yen. This morning, news that Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan Chase & Co. are planning a USD45 billion refund to the government has added to the view that the banking sector is beginning to recover. US housing starts are due out today and are expected to show an improvement in April as the slump in house prices is beginning to generate buyer interest. Minutes from the FOMC meeting are released tomorrow.

Euro – European Markets

The euro has climbed back to 1.36 against the US dollar and gained against the Japanese yen this morning as improved confidence aids the distribution of funds outside the safe havens. The euro is trading lower against the pound, Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars as well as the South African rand.

Yesterday the eurozone posted an unexpected trade surplus in March with seasonally adjusted figures showing exports strengthened by 1.6% in February. Imports increased by 0.4%. While this data shows a significant contraction for trade on the year, it also shows trade is beginning to recover after the eurozone slipped into recession in mid-2008. The euro has also rebounded ahead of the German ZEW economic survey out this morning which is expected to show an improvement in business confidence in Germany.

Other Currencies – Highlights

The New Zealand dollar remains weak this morning as official statistics show the service sector PMI fell from 47.1 to 43.7. Asian equities advanced overnight as a strong Wall Street session yesterday translated into gains for many of the Asian currencies. The euro, pound and US dollar have all gained ground against the yen and the Nikkei index climbed by over 2% yesterday. The Indian rupee has gained another 50 paise against the US dollar to trade at 47.6 this morning as the election of Manmohan Singh’s Congress Party has increased optimism over future economic reforms.

Glenn Stevens, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, has claimed the Australian economy will be supported by interest rate cuts and commodity demand from China. The Australian dollar climbed to its highest level in a week against the US dollar, boosting the New Zealand dollar along with it. The Reserve Bank of Australia has predicted the Australian economy is well placed to weather the recession due to its strong commodity orientation and effective economic policy. Consumer confidence and wage price figures are due in Australia tomorrow.

Pound Sterling – UK Markets

Sterling exchange rates have dipped slightly this morning as investors remain cautious ahead of the Bank of England interest rate decision, although the pound remains supported above 1.5 on the US dollar and 1.13 against the euro. The pound is currently trading at 2.0 against the rising Australian dollar and 2.55 against the kiwi.

The MPC is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold at 0.5% and focus on quantitative easing in the coming months as the UK economy enters a recovery phase. By contrast the ECB is expected to make a reduction to the base rate and we are likely to see some sterling-euro volatility surrounding the announcements this afternoon. This morning Barclays has announced a pre-tax profit rise of 15% for the first quarter of 2009. The profit is largely due to a strong performance in the investment banking arm and comes despite the bank eschewing government bail outs late last year. The Bank of England decision is due at noon.

US Dollar – US Markets

The dollar has experienced choppy trading overnight as markets await the results of stress tests on US banks. This morning the dollar has gained 0.5% against the euro and 0.3% against the pound while also gaining against the yen and Canadian dollar.

US news is set to dominate international headlines today as results of the Obama administration’s “stress tests” on major banks are due. The banking sector is crucial to recovery in the wider economy and the tests are designed to ascertain the level of stability in the major banks. Economists are predicting Bank of America to show the biggest credit shortfall with at least 10 of the 19 banks expected to need additional capital. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner reassured markets yesterday by stating that none of the major banks are at risk of insolvency. Official figures also released yesterday showed private sector job losses in April were at their lowest level in 5 months and this supported further market gains. Continuing jobless claims figures and a speech from Ben Bernanke are also due today.

Euro – European Markets
The euro is under pressure this morning, having dipped against most of its currency partners amidst uncertainty surrounding the ECB decision. The euro is currently valued at 1.32 against the US dollar and 0.87 against the pound.

The ECB is widely expected to reduce the base interest rate by 0.25% to 1%. ECB President Trichet has spoken in the past about more unconventional monetary policy and the ECB is expected to move towards quantitative easing to stimulate the eurozone economy. Uncertainty about how and to what extent the ECB will do this is pressuring the euro as quantitative easing is still regarded as a relatively risky policy. Switzerland’s CPI released this morning shows a 0.9% rise in prices for the month of April, bringing annual inflation to -0.3%. German factory orders are also due this morning. The ECB decision, followed by a speech from President Trichet is due this afternoon and we can expect some exchange rate volatility in all the major currencies.

Other Currencies – Highlights

The pound has slid dramatically against the Australian dollar overnight, touching on a 12-year low as positive reports from the US economy and strong Australian retail sales improved confidence of a global recovery. The Aussie has been a major beneficiary of the recent bullish run in equities as improved export and commodity prices bode well for the trade orientated Australian economy. The Aussie dollar also reached a seven month high against the euro ahead of the ECB interest rate announcement this morning. Also released this morning was the Australian unemployment rate which has actually improved, falling from 5.7% to 5.4% for April. By contrast the New Zealand unemployment rate has increased to 5%, from 4.7% the previous month.

Pound Sterling – UK Markets

The pound is up over 1% on the dollar and euro this morning as the FTSE climbs to a four month high. Sterling is currently trading above 1.5 on the dollar and 1.12 on the euro but has lost ground against the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian currencies.

The London FTSE gained 2.5% this morning to touch on the highest levels since mid January as traders returned from a bank holiday weekend in the UK. RBS and Lloyds both gained over 10%. Prospects of economic recovery in 2010 are fuelling the bullish trend in equities as PMI’s show the pace of recession easing in the UK. Statistics from the British Banking Association showed lending to small businesses increased by £270 million in March and new mortgage approvals climbed by 39,000. The rally is also despite more than 5000 British jobs being put at risk as General Motors is set to merge with Fiat. This morning BAA has also reported a 10% drop in passenger numbers. We could see some exchange rate volatility this week with the Bank of England meeting on Thursday. Today the Nationwide consumer confidence survey is released.

US Dollar – US Markets

The dollar is broadly weaker this morning, declining over 1% against the Aussie and Kiwi currencies. The dollar to euro exchange rate is in the region of 0.74 while the sterling exchange rate is hovering around 0.66. The dollar has also lost ground against the Japanese yen and other European currency partners.
Results of the stress tests on US banks are due out this week and they could show as many as 10 companies in need of additional capital. This news has failed to halt the upward momentum in equities as economists are predicting the clarity and certainty the results will provide will benefit markets in the long term. Pending home sales have increased by 3.2% in March while construction spending is up by 0.3%. This prospect of recovery in the property market has also added to positive market sentiment. Oil has climbed to $54 a barrel with copper and other commodities also posting gains. The Washington Post consumer confidence survey is out today.

Euro – European Markets

The euro has climbed above 1.33 against the US dollar and dipped slightly against the pound as market confidence improves appetite for risk. The euro has also gained against its major Asian currency partners while declining against the Swedish kroner and South African rand.

The European Commission has predicted that the 16 nation eurozone economy will contract by 4% this year. This is more than twice as bad as initially thought and the EC predicts grim months ahead with the eurozone unemployment rate reaching 11%. Spanish unemployment is expected to top 20%. This morning UBS, Switzerland’s biggest bank, has confirmed a CHF2 billion loss in the first quarter, largely due to write downs from risky investments. However there are some positive signals from the eurozone with the PMI for manufacturing climbing upwards in April. The ECB is expected to reduce the repo rate by 0.25% at this Thursday’s meeting.

Other Currencies – Highlights

The Australian dollar reached seven month highs against the US on Monday on the back of improved investor confidence. The RBA decision to leave interest rates on hold at 3% has capped any further gains and additional cuts to the base rate are expected later in the year. Australian retail sales and trade balance are due out tomorrow.

The South African rand is currently trading at 12.5 versus the pound and 8.3 versus the dollar. The rand, which has been one of the strongest performing currencies this year, is currently regarded as overvalued by economists. While the rand has strengthened on the basis of growth prospects and improved commodity prices, economists claim the strong rand is undermining export competitiveness, crucial to the export orientated economy.